Why holding out for lower prices could hurt first home buyers

In today’s easing market, it may be tempting to wait for property prices to fall further. But it’s a strategy that could see first home buyers left disappointed. We explain why.

There is no shortage of media headlines touting big falls in home prices.

But the reality may be less sensational.

While some property values at the luxury end of the market could be seeing price falls of up to 10%, it’s a very different picture at the more affordable end of the market.

We look at what’s happening with home prices, and why holding out for prices to fall further could  work against first homebuyers.

Good news for buyers: values have softened in most capital cities

The big picture is that home values nationally dropped 3.1% over the three months to September, taking annual price growth to just 2.7%, Cotality reports.

However, conditions vary between capital cities, and across market segments.

And here’s what first home buyers need to know.

Higher-value housing is recording larger price declines than affordable homes.

The affordable end of the market is proving resilient

As Cotality puts it, high-end homes are leading the downturn, while lower-priced houses and units are proving more resilient.

As a guide, in the three months to August, property values across the top 25% of the Sydney market fell by 5.7%. By comparison, values in the most affordable 25% of the market, fell by just 2.1%.

In Melbourne, the most expensive segment of the market saw values fall 5.3%, while the cheapest quarter of the market saw prices drop by just 1.3%.

And it’s a similar pattern across almost every state capital, Cotality research shows.

Hobart and Darwin bucked the trend, with home values in the most affordable segment of their respective markets rising over the last quarter.

These findings matter for first home buyers.

That’s because most first-time buyers start out in the more affordable end of the market – and that’s exactly where home values are experiencing softer price falls, if any at all.

Why are affordable homes seeing lower price falls?

Several factors are helping to limit price falls across affordable neighbourhoods.

These include steady entry-level demand.

In the June quarter of 2026, for example, over 29,000 first homebuyers purchased a place of their own. That’s about the same number for the same quarter in 2025.

Demand for affordable homes is also being supported by a range of first home buyer initiatives such as the 5% Deposit Scheme, the First Home Owner Grant and stamp duty savings initiatives.

It can also come down to numbers. There are simply fewer people who can afford to buy a luxury home.

What does this mean for first home buyers?

“Affordability” is the name of the game for plenty of today’s home buyers.

That’s because three rate hikes this year have reduced the borrowing power of many buyers.

Not surprisingly, that’s seen plenty of Australians hone in on affordable suburbs, which remain sought-after for their lower entry prices.

Across some cheaper suburbs, the number of online buyer searches has more than doubled compared to a year ago.

This doesn’t necessarily mean prices will rise in these neighbourhoods.

However, an increase in the number of buyers competing for a limited number of affordable homes may put upward pressure on prices – or limit the extent of any future price falls.

Talk to us today

As affordability pressures push demand toward cheaper markets, lower-priced suburbs may continue to be hot property among budget-conscious buyers.

This could see values in these areas hold their ground – or even buck the trend by starting to climb higher.

The bottom line is that if you’re a first home buyer, and you’re waiting for home prices to fall further, you could be disappointed.

Talk to us today to know if you’re home-loan ready right now.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Spring selling season is here. What’s different in 2026?

Australia’s peak property season is underway, and spring 2026 is shaping up as a buyers’ market. Here’s what the experts say we can expect in the weeks ahead.

Spring is traditionally the biggest selling period of the year for real estate.

It’s a season that can see more homes come onto the market, with listings rising, on average, by 15-20% compared to winter, as sellers take advantage of gardens that are in full bloom.

This year, spring is starting out on a different footing from recent times.

Plenty of signs suggest we are shifting to a buyers’ market, and that could be a plus if you’re looking for a first home, or upgrading to your next place.

Let’s take a look at what’s happening in the market, and how the experts see the season panning out.

Property values are softer

The good news for buyers this spring is that home prices are cooling in most capital cities.

Cotality’s national Home Value Index fell 0.9% in August.

That’s seeing home values nationally sit 3.6% below the market peak of March 2026.

The thing is, price declines aren’t occurring evenly across the board.

Across most state capitals, higher-value housing is recording larger price declines than lower-priced homes, Cotality says.

This may be a plus for upgraders.

Rather than being put off by selling in a softer market, upgraders may be able to take advantage of lower prices on their next home as they climb the property ladder – so long as they buy and sell within a relatively short time.

For example, a 3% price drop on a $1.5 million home that they’re keen to buy is a lot more than a 3% price drop on an $800,000 home they’re looking to sell.

More choice, better bargaining power

The supply of homes listed for sale across our major cities is now 24% higher than a year ago, and 8% above the 5-year average.

That’s quite a turnaround from last spring, when the supply of homes advertised for sale was below average.

Interestingly, the number of homes being advertised for sale by auction is down 31%. This may help reduce some of the stress involved in competing for a property at auction.

The upshot is that spring 2026 has the potential to tick plenty of boxes for homebuyers – more homes to choose from, greater scope to negotiate on price, and the potential to pay less for your new home than you may have a few months ago.

Will home prices fall further this spring?

No one really knows whether home prices will fall further or when they might start to level out.

What matters is a sense of perspective.

Westpac, for instance, is describing the current cooling property market as an “air pocket”, not a lasting downturn. It expects prices to stabilise as we head towards year’s end, then firm slightly over the course of 2027.

More homebuyers turn to a broker for help

One thing we can say for sure is that more Australians are now turning to their broker for help finding a home loan that matches their needs.

Mortgage brokers facilitated 82% of all new residential home loans during the June 2026 quarter.

That’s the highest market share on record.

It’s a clear sign that Australian homebuyers place a lot of value in having a broker in their corner.

Talk to us today

Is spring 2026 the season you will buy your first home, or next home?

Make us your first port of call, and enjoy the homebuying journey with a clear picture of your borrowing power, buying budget, and the reassurance of having a home loan that matches your needs.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Could rates lift off again before Xmas? Here’s how to prepare

Several of the big banks have pivoted on their rate outlook, and are now predicting rate hikes (rather than no change or a fall) this side of Christmas. It could be a cue for homeowners to plan rather than panic.

After three back-to-back rate hikes earlier this year, homeowners have enjoyed a welcome break from further rate rises in recent months.

But the reprieve may be short-lived.

Three of Australia’s four biggest home loan lenders have sounded the alarm on possible rate hikes, which could happen before Christmas.

We look at what’s driving the forecasts, and how you can plan ahead.

Inflation remains higher than expected

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has made it clear that it’s aiming for inflation of 2-3%, and only weeks ago, the RBA signalled it will “do what it considers necessary” to bring inflation down.

The trouble is, inflation is proving remarkably stubborn.

The latest CPI figures show inflation is currently sitting at 3.5%, and while it’s on a steady downward trend, 3.5% is still well above the RBA’s preferred range.

That’s seeing the major banks rethink their rate expectations.

Rates could rise as early as September

While the big banks hold differing views on the timing of possible rate movements, the common thread is that the next move may be up, rather than down.

NAB, for example, is expecting a 0.25% rate increase in just a few weeks – when the RBA Board meets in late September.

The Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Bank also expect the RBA to lift the cash rate by 0.25%, though not until November.  

Among the four major banks, Westpac alone holds the view that the next move for rates will be down – though it’s not expecting rates to fall until September 2027.

How a rate rise could impact your home loan repayments

If three of the four big banks are right, and rates rise by 0.25% over the next few months, this would see the RBA’s cash rate climb from 4.35% at present to 4.6% by year’s end.

We haven’t seen the cash rate at that level since 2010.

If it happens, a 0.25% rate hike could add around $91 to monthly repayments on a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining, according to an analysis by Canstar.

On a $800,000 loan, monthly repayments could rise by $121, and on a $1 million mortgage with a 25-year term, a 0.25% rate hike could add $152 to monthly repayments.

What you can do now to prepare

No one can say with certainty if we will see a pre-Christmas rate hike.

But it certainly doesn’t hurt to plan ahead.

The first step is to check your current rate.

This gives you a baseline figure to gauge if you are paying more than necessary – regardless of any possible future rate hikes.

As a benchmark, today’s average variable home loan rate is 6.65%.

Close to 50 lenders are currently offering variable home loan rates below 6%.

Not all these loans will be suitable for every borrower.

Even so, it highlights the level of competition in today’s mortgage market – and a benchmark for what’s potentially available.

Why wait for possible future rate hikes?

We can let you know today if you could save by refinancing to a new loan and lender. Or, we could assist with asking your current lender to match what else is out there in the market.

Call us to find out how your current loan shapes up, and whether you may be able to access a more competitive home loan rate or improved loan features.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Could you spot a property scam? Spoiler alert: over 2 in 5 can’t

Property transactions involve big bucks – and that makes them a big target for scammers. With large sums of money at stake, we reveal what to look out for, and how to protect yourself from property settlement scams.

Mention ‘scams’ and it’s easy to think of dodgy investment schemes or fake online stores that take your money and never deliver the goods.

But scammers are getting smarter, and this Scams Awareness Week, we’re highlighting the dangers of property settlement scams.

Hopefully it will never happen to you.

But a recent survey found 42% of Australians couldn’t pick the warning signs of a property settlement scam.

Here’s what to look for – and how to stay safe.

What are property settlement scams?

Property settlement scams are one of the most financially devastating forms of cyber-crime in Australia, according to digital property settlement platform, Pexa.

That’s because the scammers target large sums – such as a homebuyer’s deposit.

The Australian Cyber Security Centre (ACSC) explains how the scams commonly work.

It starts with cyber-crooks hacking into the email accounts of real estate agents, conveyancers or even solicitors.

From there, they send fraudulent emails to customers who are in the process of buying a property.

The scammers insert the details of their own bank account for settlement payments to be made to.

Victims assume the payment request is real, and unknowingly send money to the cyber-criminal’s bank account.

The ACSC says these scams can go unnoticed for weeks, often only being picked up when the real estate agent or conveyancer follows up on the missing payment.

Meanwhile, the homebuyer may have lost tens of thousands of dollars, and potentially far more – money that was earmarked to buy a place of their own.

Property scams are becoming harder to detect

As scams become more sophisticated, they are becoming harder to detect, says Pexa.

Adding to the challenge, scammers strike during the final stages of a property purchase – a process many people are unfamiliar with.

So just how difficult is it to spot a scam email?

Harder than you may think.

Four in ten (42%) respondents to a Pexa survey couldn’t detect any scam markers in a simulated email, and a staggering 99% couldn’t spot the use of a fraudulent email address.

That’s because the fakes can be remarkably similar to the real thing.

Red flags to watch for

Several telltale signs may indicate a scam email.

These can include a slightly altered email address, and a change to the bank account details you’re required to deposit money into.

One of the biggest red flags is that you are pressured to pay immediately.  

Creating a sense of urgency is a common scam tactic used to scare people into acting fast before they can check if the request is legitimate.

How to protect yourself

Scamwatch advises taking three simple steps to protect you and your money from scammers: Stop. Check. Protect.

Pexa explains how these can work when you’re buying property:

Stop: instead of acting under pressure from a scammer, pause if you receive an unexpected request for money or changes in payment instructions.

Check: verify the payment request independently, either in person or by calling the property professional on a known number. Don’t simply dial the phone number listed at the end of the email – scammers may have inserted their own number there too. These days, many property purchases are facilitated by encryption platforms, so while you’re chatting, check if this is available.

Protect: take Confirmation of Payee warnings by your bank seriously. These let you know if the name of the account you’re sending money to doesn’t match the name you’ve entered.

Need more information?

Rest assured, most homebuyers enjoy smooth sailing with their property purchase.

And we are always keen to explain how the homebuying process works to keep you well-informed. 

Call us today for help on your home loan journey.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

The silver lining of a cooling property market for home owners

While rising prices were the talk of the town not so long ago, the tide has started to turn, with property values beginning to soften – but it’s not all bad news for home owners.

While we’re far from a market collapse, it’s only natural for home owners to be concerned that their valuable asset could be worth slightly less than it was a few months ago.

In fact, national home prices are now 1.8% lower than they were in March, led by falling values in Sydney and Melbourne.

However, there may be an unexpected upside to cooling property prices.

And that’s the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may think twice about hiking rates again in the near future.

Here’s what’s happening.

The RBA is watching inflation

The RBA has made no secret of the fact it is aiming for inflation between 2-3%.

The trouble is, we are still a long way from that sweet spot, with inflation currently at 3.8%.

And here’s the thing: “housing” makes up one of the largest single factors contributing to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation.

Now, when it comes to CPI, “housing” doesn’t refer to the sale price or value of existing properties – but those sale prices do have a flow-on effect.

For starters, it’s believed that lower house prices can make home owners feel less financially stable, and in turn, they tend to tighten their belts. And it can have the opposite effect when property prices are running hot.

Additionally, when the property market is doing well, and more homes are being bought, more appliances and furniture are also being purchased – not to mention renovations, extensions and the hiring of tradespeople.

So it makes sense that a fall in property prices may help lower inflation, which could in turn reduce the odds of another rate hike.

This isn’t just a theory.

RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent recently said that softening property market conditions “heavily reduced” the need for further rate rises.

When will home loan rates go down?

We don’t have a crystal ball. 

It’s always hard to say with certainty how rates will move in the future.

On one hand, in early August, RBA governor Michele Bullock cautioned that future rate hikes can’t be ruled out if inflation looks like remaining higher for longer.

On the flipside, most of the big banks now expect the next rate move to be down.

The catch?

Even if the banks’ forecasts prove accurate, they aren’t expecting to see the cash rate fall before 2027.

The RBA has also noted that it doesn’t expect inflation to reach its preferred 2-3% target before mid-2027.

For home owners navigating higher rates, that could mean a long wait for any rate relief.

However, you might not have to wait at all

It may be possible to make a rate cut of your own.

Competition among lenders: a strong case for refinancing

Competition in the mortgage market is seeing almost 50 lenders offer variable rates below 6%, Canstar reports.

An owner-occupier who took out a home loan five years ago and who has never renegotiated, is likely to be paying around 6.97%.

If that sounds like you, it’s probably time for a home loan review.

Switching to a lower rate loan could see you save on repayments today, without waiting for the RBA to act.

Call us for a quick home loan health check and to find out if you’re eligible for a more competitive rate.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.