Has the housing market’s latest record-breaking run peaked?

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Property prices climbed at a breathtaking pace in early 2021, which has been good news for homeowners and heartbreaking for house hunters. However, there are seven key signs that the pace of capital gains has peaked, says CoreLogic.

Now, it’s important to note that CoreLogic is not suggesting that housing values are about to dip.

Far from it.

Rather, CoreLogic believes the housing market is “moving through a peak rate of growth and the pace of capital gains will gradually taper over coming months”.

“Overall, we are expecting housing values to continue to rise throughout 2021 and most likely throughout 2022, just not at the unsustainable pace of growth that has been evident over recent months,” explains CoreLogic’s Head of Research Tim Lawless.

Below are the seven signs they’ve identified.

1. CoreLogic’s home value index indicates a slowdown

CoreLogic’s rolling four-week change in dwelling values shows Sydney’s rate of growth has dropped from 3.5% (in the four weeks leading up to 21 March) to 2.3% (in the four weeks to 21 April).

Meanwhile, Melbourne dropped from 2.5% to 1.5%, Brisbane from 2% to 1.8%, and Perth from 1.5% to 0.9%.

The only mainland state capital to record an increase was Adelaide, up 1.7% from 1.2%.

2. Auction clearance rates have dropped

Historically, there’s been a strong positive correlation between auction clearance rates and the pace of appreciation in housing values, says Mr Lawless.

Recently, however, there has been a slight softening in auction clearance results.

The weighted average clearance rate moved through a recent high of 83.1% in the last week of March, before dropping to 78.6% in the week ending 18 April.

3. Vendor activity has increased

There has been a considerable rise in new listings as vendors look to capitalise on the market’s strong selling conditions.

In the four weeks to 18 April as many as 26,470 capital city properties were added to the market, says CoreLogic.

“That’s the largest number of new listings for this time of the year since 2016 and 17% above the five-year average,” adds Mr Lawless.

4. Housing supply is on the rise

Thanks to HomeBuilder, there has been a significant lift in housing construction activity that will add to overall supply levels in the coming months.

Approvals for new dwelling construction are at record highs, points out CoreLogic, and dwelling commencements over the December quarter were almost 20% higher than a year earlier and 5.5% above the decade average.

5. Population growth has turned negative

Due to current tight border restrictions, it’s much harder to get into Australia than usual.

That’s led to a decline in population growth, which can also have an impact on housing demand (although it’s more likely to have a bigger impact on rental markets, as the majority of migrants rent before buying).

“Population growth, which is an important component of housing demand, has turned negative for the first time since 1916 due to closed borders and stalled overseas migration,” adds Mr Lawless.

6. Fewer government incentives and schemes available

You might have heard that applications for the HomeBuilder grant, which started off at $25,000 before being reduced to $15,000, have now closed.

On top of that, JobKeeper has also finished, and JobSeeker has been dialled back.

“Australia is moving into a new phase of the economic recovery where there is substantially less fiscal support which could result in a reduction of housing market activity,” says Mr Lawless.

7. Higher barriers for homebuyers looking to crack the market

Last but not least: the higher prices rise, the higher the entry barrier for home buyers.

And the higher the entry barrier, the fewer active house hunters there are, which means less demand to drive up prices.

“For those looking to enter the market, growth in housing values is substantially outpacing incomes, which means a growing deposit hurdle for first home buyers,” explains Mr Lawless.

Get in touch today for help overcoming these barriers

As you can see, there’s a case to be made that the rate of property price growth has peaked.

But Mr Lawless warns there are still a variety of factors that are likely to keep upward pressure on housing values for some time, including the record-low official cash rate, which the RBA says won’t lift “until 2024 at the earliest”.

So while prices are expected to continue to increase – and it might feel like you’re running on the spot – please know that potential solutions do exist for keen homebuyers.

For example, the federal government’s First Home Loan Deposit Scheme is due to accept another 10,000 applications in early July, allowing eligible first home buyers with only a 5% deposit to purchase a property without paying for lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).

For more information, give us a call – we’d love to help you out.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Business demand for equipment has hit record numbers

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Businesses across the country are purchasing new equipment and vehicles in record numbers, as companies big and small embrace the strongest market conditions seen in years, according to NAB data.

And with the end of the financial year approaching quickly, we’re expecting demand for equipment and vehicles to remain strong, with businesses looking to invest in their future by taking advantage of the federal government’s temporary full expensing rules (more on that below).

NAB believes the demand for new equipment is the result of a bumpy 2020, when businesses were forced to ‘pivot’ and innovate their way through the pandemic.

And now Australian businesses are investing to build on the opportunities they uncovered.

“With business confidence at an all-time high and businesses building on things they’ve learnt through the pandemic, I’m not surprised that equipment sales are so high,” says NAB Executive Regional and Agribusiness Julie Rynski.

The top equipment purchases Australian businesses have made according to NAB include:

– tractors up 146% year-on-year (YOY)
– irrigation equipment up 217% (YOY)
– earthmoving/construction equipment up 133% (YOY)
– forklifts up 216% (YOY)
– coffee machines up 155% (YOY)

What’s that ‘temporary full expensing’ thing you mentioned?

Temporary full expensing is more or less an expanded version of the federal government’s popular instant asset write-off scheme.

It allows businesses, both big and small, to immediately write off any eligible depreciable asset, at any cost, up until 30 June 2022.

This can help improve your business’s cash flow by allowing you to reinvest the funds back into your business sooner.

But it’s important to note that the asset must be installed, or ready for use, by 30 June in order to be eligible for this financial year.

Full details on business and asset eligibility can be found on the ATO’s website.

Want to explore your finance options for a new business asset?

Being able to immediately write off assets is all well and good, but if you don’t have access to the funds to purchase them, the scheme won’t be of much use to you.

So if you’d like help obtaining finance to make the most of temporary full expensing for your business, get in touch with us today.

We can present you with financing options for the scheme that are well suited to your business’s needs now, and into the future.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

HomeBuilder extension gives applicants extra 12 months to start building

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Tens of thousands of HomeBuilder applicants around the nation can breathe a sigh of relief after the federal government extended the construction commencement requirement from six months to 18 months.

It’s fair to say that the success of the HomeBuilder program caught a lot of people off guard and, as a result, contributed to a surge in demand for manpower within the residential construction industry.

In fact, more than 121,000 Australians applied for the HomeBuilder grant, which is expected to support around $30 billion worth of residential construction projects.

“The number of new houses that commenced construction in the December quarter was the second-highest level on record,” says Housing Industry Association’s chief economist Tim Reardon.

Long story short: the $25,000 and $15,000 grants incentivised so many people to build or renovate their homes that many builders were going to be unable to turn the first sod within the required six-month time frame.

So who exactly will the extension benefit?

Ok, so if you haven’t lodged an application for the HomeBuilder grant, then bad news, this extension won’t apply to you as the application deadline was April 14.

This extension will benefit those who’ve already applied and signed contracts during the HomeBuilder eligibility period between 4 June 2020 and 31 March 2021.

It means applicants now have 18 months – from the date an eligible contract was signed – for construction to begin on their property.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says the extension will help smooth out the HomeBuilder construction pipeline and support construction jobs over a longer period of time.

“It will also ensure that existing applicants facing difficulties in starting construction on their new builds and renovations are not denied a HomeBuilder grant due to circumstances outside their control,” explains Mr Frydenberg.

Need finance for your HomeBuilder project?

If you applied for finance while making your HomeBuilder grant application several months ago, get in touch with us today to double-check it’s still the most suitable option for you (much has changed in the past months!).

And if you’ve signed a building contract for HomeBuilder, but haven’t got around to exploring finance options just yet, then be sure to reach out to us soon – we’d love to run through some solutions with you.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Fixed mortgage rates set to rise in coming months: experts

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House prices could jump 17% in 2021 and mortgage rates are set to rise much sooner than expected, ANZ Bank has tipped.

How much earlier than expected?

Well, the Reserve Bank has repeatedly said the official cash rate isn’t likely to increase for a few years, but ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett believes fixed-mortgage rates have already reached their lowest point, or close to it.

In recent times, more than 30% of new loans have been at fixed rates, says Ms Emmett, with two to three-year fixed-term interest rates available below 2%.

But that’s unlikely to be the case for much longer, she believes.

“In the second half of the year these sub-2%, three-year fixed rates that we’re seeing advertised at the moment are less likely to be around,” says Ms Emmett.

“Cheaper funding is not available forever and that will feed through into variable mortgage rates too.”

Shane Oliver, Chief Economist at AMP Capital, also believes fixed mortgage rates “have already started to bottom out”.

“It’s likely that the 30-year tailwind for the property market of falling interest rates has now run its course and longer dated fixed rates (4+ years) are starting to rise,” adds Mr Oliver.

Wait, did you say ANZ is tipping property prices to increase 17%?

That’s right. ANZ economists expect house prices to rise by a “sharp” 17% across the capital cities in 2021.

They’re tipping Sydney and Perth to perform best with 19% growth, followed by Hobart (18%), Melbourne and Brisbane (16%), and Adelaide (13%).

ANZ’s forecast is much more bullish than those of Commonwealth Bank and Westpac, which in February predicted price increases of 8% and 10% respectively.

Ms Emmet says low housing stock levels are combining with FOMO (fear of missing out) to help drive up the market.

“Buyers are taking advantage of historically low interest rates, particularly fixed rates, as well as various government support programs,” Ms Emmet said.

Got a bit of FOMO yourself?

After the relative hibernation of last year, there’s certainly a lot going on in the world of property and finance right now.

So, if you’d like to chat to us about financing a new home you’ve got your eye on, or refinancing your existing loan, get in touch today and we’ll help sort out that FOMO for you.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

How do you compare: how much of your pay goes to your mortgage?

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The property market is going through a boom phase, which means housing affordability is getting tougher. So how much does the average Australian household need to put towards their monthly home loan repayments in the current market? Let’s take a look.

You’ve probably noticed the housing market is going a bit crazy at the moment.

FOMO has taken hold and many properties across the country are selling well above their reserve.

As such, housing affordability has deteriorated, says Moody’s Investor Service, reversing the improving trend seen in 2020 during the peak of the coronavirus crisis.

So what percentage of a pay cheque goes towards a typical home loan?

On average, two-income households need to put aside a quarter (24.6%) of their monthly income to meet repayments on a new home loan, as of February 2021.

That’s up from 22.7% in June and July 2020, when new mortgages were the most affordable they’ve been in a decade.

The deterioration in housing affordability was evident in all capital cities over the five months to February 2021, with Perth remaining the most affordable and Sydney the least.

That said, housing affordability still remains better than the ten-year average of 26.1% and well under its peak of 30.7% in April 2011.

That’s because the average mortgage interest rate has nearly halved to 3.65% since 2011, according to Moody’s.

Want to know how much you can borrow?

Got your eye on an exciting new property and want to know if you can get a loan for it?

Get in touch today and we’ll help you crunch the numbers, work out your borrowing capacity, and discuss your finance options.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.