“On the cusp of a boom”: CBA’s assessment of the housing market

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Australia’s housing market is on the “cusp of a boom”, with house prices set to leap 16% over the next two years, according to the Commonwealth Bank (CBA).

The head of economics at Australia’s biggest bank, Gareth Aird, predicts national house prices will surge 9% in 2021 and a further 7% in 2022.

Apartment prices meanwhile are predicted to rise 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022.

“The negative impact that COVID-19 had on Australian property prices turned out to be much more muted than almost any forecaster expected,” Mr Aird has written in a note to clients.

The CBA prediction is similar to that contained in an internal RBA FOI document, which projects house prices could rise by up to 30% if interest rates remain low over the next three years (which the RBA has indicated will happen).

So what can we expect across the country?

In Sydney and Melbourne, dwelling (house and apartment) prices are predicted to grow by at least 12% in the next two years, says Mr Aird.

That would see Sydney’s median dwelling price increase by a whopping $160,000 to $1.2 million, and Melbourne’s median dwelling price increase by $110,000 to $920,000.

Meanwhile, Perth values are tipped to rise 17.7% ($99,000), Brisbane 16.6% ($102,000), and Canberra 15.5% ($132,000).

Rounding out the capital cities, Adelaide is predicted to increase 14.5% ($86,000), Hobart 15% ($87,000) and Darwin 18% ($99,000).

So when and why are property prices set to increase?

Well, it appears as though the “boom” may have already just begun, Mr Aird explains in a CBA podcast.

“Over the first two weeks of February, national prices are up 0.8%. So we’re looking at over 1.5% in February alone,” says Mr Aird.

“Prices are now rising in all capital cities. And they’re rising quite quickly.”

Mr Aird says a strong indicator for property prices is lending figures, and over the last four to five months lending has picked up quite significantly.

“It’s quite intuitive when you think about it. The money that people borrow ends up going into the housing market, and that then pushes up housing prices. There’s usually about a six month lead time,” he explains.

“Initially, that (lending) was with owner-occupiers, but more recently it has spilled over to investors. And that is now feeding into house prices.”

Another strong indicator is auction clearance rates, adds Mr Aird.

“They are very, very firm at the moment. Nationally we’re seeing it sit in the 80s (percent), which historically has been consistent with double-digit dwelling price growth,” he says.

Other key momentum builders are the RBA advising that the record-low official cash rate won’t increase until 2024, says Mr Aird, and strong recovery in the labour market.

“The fact that the Reserve Bank has given explicit public guidance that rates are going to stay very, very low for a number of years, that’s given borrowers a lot of confidence to go out there and take on debt,” he says.

“All of those inputs that go into our model are screaming that house price rises could be faster than at any point we’ve seen before, and our model goes back 10 years.”

Explore your options

If you’re one of the many prospective homebuyers who are feeling confident about the housing market right now and want to explore your financing options, get in touch today.

We’re more than happy to help you determine whether you can finance that home you have your eye on before the next housing boom takes off.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

Back up for grabs: 1800 first home buyer scheme spots reissued

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Great news just in for first home buyers: the Australian government will reissue 1800 First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS) spots from the 2019-20 financial year. 

The 1800 spots are back up for grabs because people who previously reserved a spot in the Australian government scheme were unable to complete the purchase of their first home.

Their loss can be your gain!

The FHLDS allows eligible first home buyers to break into the property market sooner, as you only need a 5% deposit to purchase a property without paying for lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).

This can save you anywhere between $4,000 and $40,000, depending on the property price and the deposit amount you’ve saved.

More locations now possible

Ok, so the FHLDS has these things called ‘property price thresholds’.

Basically, they mean you can only qualify for the scheme if you purchase a property under a certain price tag in certain locations.

The good news is that the thresholds were recently increased to allow first home buyers a greater range of options.

And helpfully, property research group CoreLogic has just identified suburbs that – due to COVID-19 and the slight impact it had on inner-city apartment prices – are now a prime option for first home buyers in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

They’ve identified 23 suburbs where median unit values have slipped below the FHLDS property price thresholds in the past 12 months.

Here’s the full list, but some highlights include:

Sydney: Strathfield, Arncliffe, Ashfield, Gladesville, Wentworth Point.

Melbourne: Brunswick, South Melbourne, St Kilda East, Thornbury, Docklands.

Brisbane: South Brisbane.

Perth: Munster.

Time’s ticking!

It’s important to note that FHLDS spots are usually reserved pretty quickly.

So if you’re thinking about purchasing your first home soon and want to make the most of the scheme, give us a call today – we’ll help you get the ball rolling on applying with one of the scheme’s participating lenders.

And even if you are unable to jag one of the 1800 reissued spots, you’ll be in a prime position to apply when a further 10,000 spots are released on July 1.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

How did your suburb fare during the COVID-19 crisis?

When coronavirus broke out across Australia, doomsday reports tipped the property market could fall as far as 30% across the country. Fortunately, that wasn’t the case. Here’s how to find out how your suburb actually fared.

A realestate.com.au analysis shows that property prices actually grew in most Australian suburbs throughout 2020.

Yep, that’s right.

Despite prolonged lockdowns in some parts of the country (especially Melbourne), most suburbs experienced year-on-year growth in 2020.

Go and have a look for yourself using this realestate.com.au interactive tool to see how your suburb did.

So which suburbs did best?

It should come as no surprise that lifestyle suburbs and coastal areas (such as Pearl Beach in NSW, pictured) ranked consistently high, given that many people had a taste of working from home and might not ever have to return to their inner-city offices.

But houses in plenty of trendy inner-city suburbs did well too, such as St Lucia in Brisbane (up 35%) and Brunswick East in Melbourne (up 20%).

Below are the suburbs that experienced the largest percentage increase in house prices in each state and territory:

NSW: Pearl Beach (46%), North Avoca (44%), Glenorie (38%), Woollahra (35%), Clovelly (34%).

VIC: Portsea (34%), Tyabb (28%), South Melbourne (23%), Collingwood (22%), Brunswick East (20%).

QLD: St Lucia (35%), Virginia (24%), Yeronga (20%), Woodford (19%), Kilcoy (19%).

WA: Kelmscott (39%), Coodanup (30%), Medina (22%), Madora Bay (20%), Mosman Park (20%).

SA: Hove (36%), Port Noarlunga South (27%), Glenelg East (22%), Blackwood (22%), Craigburn Farm (22%).

TAS: Dodges Ferry (26%), New Norfolk (25%), Berriedale (18%), Bridgewater (17%), Rokeby (17%).

ACT: Ainslie (34%), Lyneham (23%), O’Connor (21%), Palmerston (20%), Garran (20%).

NT: Berriham (12%), Zuccoli (8%), Durack (8%), Muirhead (6%), Leanyer (2%).

So why didn’t property prices take a dive?

Director of economic research at realestate.com.au Cameron Kusher says there are several reasons why property prices didn’t fall dramatically, but the key reason is the unprecedented amount of stimulus that was pumped into the economy.

“HomeBuilder has stimulated new housing, JobKeeper has kept many Australians employed and the relaxation of bankruptcy laws along with lenders offering mortgage holidays ensured we didn’t see a rise in forced sales,” Mr Kusher says.

Another key reason is record-low borrowing costs.

Indeed, the RBA cut the official cash rate three times to 0.1% in 2020, and as such interest rates are now at record low levels.

“Historic low borrowing costs at a time when people are spending less has seen more demand flow into the housing market, driving up sales and supporting price levels,” adds Mr Kusher.

How to make property more affordable

As mentioned above, interest rates are at record low levels and there are still a number of government stimulus packages available to help make your next property purchase more affordable.

If you’d like us to run you through some of the support and interest rate offers in more detail, give us a call today – we’d love to help you explore your options.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

How will your business bounce back from 2020?

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If you’re worried about how to recover from the horror show that was 2020, you’re not alone. Two-thirds of Australian small to medium businesses feel the same way, research shows.

As SMEs look towards “COVID-normal” in 2021, many are wondering how they will rebound from the stresses and strains of the past year.

In fact, as many as 65% of businesses are worried about having a clear recovery pathway, according to findings from business banking analysis firm East & Partners.

And despite the government support on offer during the pandemic, almost half of surveyed businesses (47%) said they had difficulty accessing government-guaranteed loans during COVID-19.

COVID-19 exacerbates existing concerns

These COVID-specific concerns come as businesses experience a marked increase in perennial concerns, the ScotPac-commissioned research also shows.

In the past 18 months, the biggest shift has been businesses finding funders harder to deal with than normal, with 56% of businesses saying this was an issue compared to 47% in 2019.

And there has been a marked increase in businesses frustrated that their funder isn’t meeting their needs (22%, up from 16%).

The top three concerns have been loan conditions (84%), having to provide property security (80%) and lack of flexibility (74%).

More businesses seek specialist advice

Amid the horror show of 2020, SME reliance on trusted advisors grew.

53% of SMEs relied more on their key advisor – such as their broker or accountant – during the pandemic.

And the vast majority (82%) said this had a positive impact on their business.

Path to recovery

Moving forward, the report states that “successfully navigating out the other side of the COVID crisis requires SME owners not to delay making the hard decisions about their business.”

“These hard decisions include assessing business viability, pinpointing the best way to fund the business, working out how to deal with the end of JobKeeper (if not for themselves, for the impact this will have on their supply chains) and planning for what happens when ATO debts are enforced and other deferred debts fall due.”

If you think you might have trouble navigating some of these hard decisions, then please get in touch today – we’re here to help you explore your business’s finance and funding options.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

House prices projected to jump 30% in three years: RBA

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It’s the document that was never meant to see the light of day. But a Freedom of Information request reveals the Reserve Bank of Australia projects a 30% increase in house prices if interest rates remain low for the next few years.

The internal, not-meant-for-public-viewing analysis by the RBA looks at the impact of low interest rates on asset prices, including property.

The November 2020 document projects that housing prices could increase by 30% after about three years, so long as the official cash rate remains near record low levels (at or below 0.5%).

And that part of the equation looks promising, as the RBA board said they “weren’t expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years” when they cut it to 0.1% in November.

What does this mean for property owners?

A lot more than just a potential 30% increase in the value of their property.

The RBA says both households and businesses can expect their borrowing capacity to increase, too.

That’s because low interest rates will lift asset prices (including property), which in turn will boost wealth, household spending and the value of collateral.

And as the value of collateral increases, so too will the borrowing capacity of households and businesses, the RBA document states.

What about prospective property owners?

With house prices projected by the RBA to rise 30% over the coming three years, it begs the question: is now a good time to jump into the property market?

Well, like most things in life, it will depend on your earnings, savings, borrowing capacity, goals, and where you’re at in life right now.

But it’s worth noting that there are a wide variety of generous federal and state government initiatives currently on offer, including the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, HomeBuilder and stamp duty exemptions/concessions.

The quickest way to find out whether you can finance that home you have your eye on is to get in touch with us today – we’d love to explore your financing options with you.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.